Source Gangtise to invest in research

-- Manufacturing | Technology (5)

[natural gas heavy trucks] affected by low gas prices and low freight rates, the cost-effective use of natural gas heavy trucks has remained high for a long time, and the permeability of natural gas heavy trucks is expected to continue to increase (currently about 40%). The sales volume of natural gas heavy truck was 2. 5% in AprilBaccaratpapillon.7-28000 units, and it is expected that the average monthly sales of 2024Q2 natural gas heavy trucks can be maintained at 20-30, 000 units.

[power equipment] from January to March in 2024, the export value of transformers was US $1.24 billion, an increase of 25.5% over the same period last year (March exports were US $460 million, an increase of 23.9% over the same period last year, of which liquid transformers increased by 67.5%). At present, transformer exports to Europe and the United States have strong growth potential. From January to March in 2024, the export value of electricity meters was 310 million US dollars, an increase of 9.7 percent over the same period last year (the export value in March was 95 million US dollars, down 18.2 percent from the same period last year). At present, the growth rate of electricity meter exports to Asia and Africa is relatively high, mainly because Asia and Africa are in the stage of power construction. The export value of isolating switches from January to March in 2024 was 50 million US dollars, an increase of 60% over the same period last year (March exports were 15 million US dollars, up 33% from the same period last year). It is expected that the growth potential of isolating switches will be higher in the future.

[electric two-wheeler] in April 2024, the sales volume of the domestic electric bicycle industry was affected.BaccaratpapillonDue to the impact of the high-level fire in Nanjing, sales and stores are subject to a large number of inspections; it is expected that after the completion of terminal inspection and consumer inspection, industry sales may become regular in mid-late May, and a clear policy is expected to be introduced in mid-late May. In addition, small and medium-sized manufacturers with an annual output of less than one million may suffer from the previous failure to strictly implement the new national standard, because their products focus on fast, large models and low prices, which are difficult to meet the requirements of the new national standard, and benefit the first two-wheeled car companies. At the same time, the implementation of the new GB standard has led to a cost increase of more than 30%, so the industry is not expected to have a price war in 2024.

[self-driving] at present, Huawei and Xiaopeng's intelligent driving system is comparable to Tesla's FSD V11, and the technology gap between Huawei and FSD V12 is 0.5 years. L3 + high-level intelligent driving system is expected to be the first to achieve a rapid increase in permeability on models of 15-300000 yuan. It is estimated that in the next 2 to 3 years, the penetration rate of the L3 + high-level intelligent driving system will reach more than 30%. At that time, the market concentration of the top 5-6 enterprises is expected to reach more than 80%.

[energy storage] at present, under the condition that the transfer rate on the source side is very low, various localities continue to strengthen the allocation and reserve ratio, mainly due to the current poor economic situation and the lack of effective means by local governments to stimulate the economy and employment. Therefore, they regard new energy and energy storage industries as strategic emerging industries and hope to promote economic growth through these industries. China's new energy market is not yet fully market-oriented, and it is still dominated by indemnificatory acquisitions, and new energy projects can make profits without market competition. Under such circumstances, the government may strengthen its energy storage policy to ensure the economic benefits of new energy projects. Taking into account the above factors, it is unlikely that the mandatory energy storage policy will be fully liberalized in 2024. Although some provinces may relax, overall, the policy is expected to continue to support the development of new energy and energy storage industries.

-- consumption | Medical care (7)--

[hotel] before the May Day holiday, the reservation of OTA platform hotels increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, but the price decreased by 20% compared with the same period last year. According to the tracked hotel group data, the hotel group RevPAR still has single-digit growth during the May Day period, but the hotel group is still dominated by business passenger flow, and the overall tourism growth has a relatively limited impact on the hotel group demand.

[tourism] A total of 1.12 billion passengers were sent by railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation in the first four days of May Day this year, an increase of 4.2% over the same period in 2023 (of which railways and roads increased by small digits year-on-year, waterways increased by 10.8%. Civil aviation increased by 7%), and the average daily passenger volume was 280 million, an increase of 32% over the same period in 2019. Ctrip data show that the proportion of long-distance travel in China is declining on May Day this year. In addition, the tourism growth rate of the sinking market during the May Day holiday this year is relatively high.

[jewelry] data from the Gold Association show that the overall gold consumption of 2024Q1 increased by 6% compared with the same period last year, of which gold jewelry decreased by 3%, gold bars and coins increased by about 27%. 2024Q1 domestic gold consumption is mainly driven by investment demand. Gold prices rose rapidly in the first quarter, which suppressed the consumption of gold jewelry to a certain extent. Medium-and long-term gold prices are expected to remain relatively strong, and subsequent consumption of gold jewelry is expected to be repaired.

[textiles and clothing] from January to April 2024, Vietnam's textile exports totaled US $10.4 billion, an increase of 6.3 percent over the same period last year, and 6.3 percent in April. In addition, from January to April 2024, Vietnamese footwear exports totaled US $6.542 billion, up 6.7 per cent from a year earlier, while Vietnamese footwear exports fell 2.8 per cent in April compared with the same period last year.

[liquor] Su liquor merchants said that during the May Day period, most of the tobacco and hotel business was not as good as in previous years, the overall sales of liquor and banquets declined, and the growth of banquet sales was mainly concentrated in Shiyuan and Yanghe shares. The increase in sales of Shiyuan banquet is mainly due to the year-on-year increase of more than 30% of the sales of V3 and V3, while the sales of K3 and K5 have decreased slightly compared with the same period last year. Sales of Yanghe Hai Zhi Blue Banquet decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of light elegance in this world; Sky Blue sales were basically the same as in 2023; M3 crystal version and M6 + sales increased year-on-year.

[cosmetics] in April 2024, the GMV of skincare products of Tmall and Douyin were the same as the same period last year, with Tmall down 19% and Douyin up 29%. In April 2024, Shanghai American shares GMV increased by 100% compared with the same period last year, Ifeidan grew by 88%, Fumei and Corijin grew by 66%, Pu'erjia grew by 52%, Pumei grew by 29%, and Bettany grew by 13%. Perea GMV fell 6% year-on-year in April 2024, mainly because the company did not participate in platform activities and fewer discounts. In April 2024, most of the big international brands still had negative growth (among them, Helena, Yayang and Lifuquan achieved positive growth).

[medical beauty] an expert from a chain of medical institutions said that at present, the growth rate of non-surgical projects is much higher than that of surgical projects. During the May Day period, the number of customers in non-surgical projects increased by about 27% compared with the same period last year, while the number of operating tables in surgical programs increased by only 12%. The proportion of revenue from non-surgical projects is expected to reach 70% or more in 2024, and the proportion of visits will increase to 85.90%.

-material | Energy (4)--

　　【涤纶长丝】2024Q1国内涤纶长丝整体产能利用率为88%，同比增长20pct，产量同比增长37%，1~4月产量同比增长30%。4月底行业库存水平从27天的高点降至22.5天，而五一假期期间整体产销率在30%左右，目前库存水平在25~26天。此外，近日杭州两家主流涤纶长丝企业因锅炉改造已经停产，涉及产能分别为60万吨和100万吨，占国内总产量的4~5%，停产周期在1.5个月左右，甚至更长。另外，目前国内涤纶长丝总产能为4000多万吨，投产10年、15年和20年以上的分别占比43%、21%和11%，而投产20年以上的产能对行业产量扰动非常大，部分产线可能直接关停。

　　【煤炭】2024年1~2月山西煤炭总产量下滑18.1%，3月份下滑18.9%，Q1月产量在9400万吨左右，而2023年月产量在1.15亿吨左右。预计5月底5500大卡动力煤价格或回升至900元/吨以上，港口主焦煤到2300元/吨以上。

　　【草甘膦】目前国内草甘膦行业开工率在80%以上，较前期有较大提升，库存已从2024年2月23日的8.13万吨降至4月26日的5.32万吨。现在下游采购积极，企业订单良好，95%草甘膦原药成交价在26000元/吨左右（4月30日），毛利率在5~10%。

　　—— 金融|基建（4个）——

　　【水电】云南地区在2023年的的降水量已经不佳的情况下，2024年降水情况可能进一步恶化。2024年云南西部地区在春季末（五一假期期间）才迎来了一些降水，根据预报，未来几个月（6月、7月、8月）云南地区的降水量将明显偏少。2024年夏季气候受厄尔尼诺影响，南方降水多，北方干旱；冬季可能受拉尼娜影响，有极寒天气风险。

　　【民航】五一期间，国内机票出行人次同比增长37%，恢复至2019年同期的145%；国际机票出行人次同比增长95%，恢复至2019年同期的70%。国内机票均价（不含税）是890元，同比下降10%；国际机票均价（不含税）是2330元，同比下降27%。分析师表示，5月1日~5月4日累计航班量为6.0万架次，日均航班量为1.5万架次，日均民航旅客吞吐量为194.5万人次。国内旅客累计吞吐量698.4万人次，同比2019年同期增长12.9%，同比2023年同期提升0.8%。

　　【建筑】2024Q1建筑行业的上市公司整体实现营收2.57万亿元，同比增长7.71%，归母净利润442亿元，同比增长28.4%，利润增速非常明显。Q1建筑行业的上市公司应收类账款等资产整合达8.63万亿元，比2024年年初增加4.55%，其资产占总资产比例达到59.53%，比2024年年初增加1.26个百分点，整体行业对下游垫资有增无减。

　　【房地产】4月南京二手房成交量将近31000套，新房成交量6255套，新房市场仍然保持相对低温的状态，打折和降价现象仍然存在。截至4月，南京新房可售库存有800多万方，接近7万套，整体库存压力很大。