Huitong Financial App Newsletter-currency: USD / JPY

Source: Yi Huitong

On Friday (May 3), USDJPY hit a three-week low of 151Freedailyspinscasino.86, down 0.48% to close at 152.90. Japanese authorities intervened earlier this week, sending the yen to its biggest weekly percentage gain since November 2022. The non-farm data in the United States on Friday were not ideal, further contributing to the rebound of the yen. Data from the United States on Friday showed that the United States added 175000 jobs in April, below the 243000 economists had expected. Wages rose 3.9 per cent in April from a year earlier, below expectations of 4.0 per cent and 4.1 per cent in March. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, but remained below 4% for the 27th month in a row. Job growth slowed more than expected in April and year-on-year wage increases cooled, prompting the market to increase bets that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. This puts some pressure on the dollar. However, voices from key Fed officials believe that the data only show that the labor market has loosened, not that the economy is declining sharply. Fed governor Bowman said on Friday that even if the Fed keeps its benchmark interest rate at its current level, inflation should continue to fall, while reiterating her willingness to raise policy rates if inflation slows or reverses. Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said the jobs report showed that growth was "robust" but slowed, which could make Fed officials more confident that the economy is not overheating. So unless the non-farm trend continues on Friday, the report itself is unlikely to affect the Fed's policy change. On the daily chart, the overbought situation of various technical indicators is easing after the dollar / yen has fallen sharply since the intervention around 160, and is currently temporarily supported around 152. If the exchange rate further effectively falls below 152, the extent of the decline of the US dollar will be further extended. On the contrary, if the support is above the above level, I am afraid there is still a possibility that the dollar / yen will try to rise.

Currency: AUD / USD

Source: Yi Huitong

On Friday, the Australian dollar closed 0.7 per cent higher at 0.6608, hitting a three-week high of 0.6647. Friday's US jobs data was weaker than expected and US bond yields fell, boosting the continued rebound of the Australian dollar against the US dollar last week. The Australian dollar was also boosted by expectations that the RBA might be more hawkish at this week's policy meeting. All but one of 37 analysts expect the RBA to keep interest rates unchanged at its May interest rate meeting, according to a Reuters poll. If you put forward a hawkish view on interest rates, it is expected to stimulate the Australian dollar / USD to continue to rebound. On the daily chart, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar / US dollar advances to the upper track of the Bollinger belt channel, and all kinds of technical indicators maintain an upward trend, indicating that the Australian dollar is more active in buying bargains. If the exchange rate can break through the resistance level above the previous wide horizontal range of 0.6660, the Australian dollar / US dollar is expected to move closer to a higher level, and the measurement space target is expected to attack 0.68. At present, the lower part of the Bollinger belt is expected to provide strong support near the level of 0.6520 of the middle trajectory.

Wang Gang, Bank of China Guangdong Branch

It is only a personal point of view, not the point of view of the organization

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